Sunday, January 18, 2015

Musings on Being Hoisted on Our Own Petard*


“It is not the most intellectual of the species that survives; it is not the strongest that survives; but the species that survives is the one that is able to adapt to and to adjust best to the changing environment in which it finds itself……so says Charles Darwin in his “Origin of Species"                                                                                           
Leon C. Megginson

This morning, after over-sleeping and not yet having a good cup of coffee…

 I found myself beset with examples of my specie’s apparent inability to deal with large, complex problems and threats, while remaining mired in minutia and monkey games. The examples placed before ranged in scale from immediately around me to the unfortunate content of today’s news.
I stopped for a moment and thought:
I wonder if advanced intelligence can be an overspecialization?


We pride ourselves on our intelligence, and much of the story, the saga of our rise to world dominance is (if not depicted as the result of our being favored by some invisible all powerful ethereal creature(s) )founded on our mental abilities producing a behavioral repertoire unmatched by any other creature on the planet. But the most rapid change we currently need to adapt to, is the product of our advanced intelligence accreted into the usual animal instincts and legacy behaviors.

The apparent inability of a majority of us not being capable of, or not caring about, it being hard to discern which; understanding our impact now and since the last ice age on our biogeophysical surroundings is perhaps, the best example of this.

Most of us seem ill disposed or unable, to act with the knowledge we now have of our impact through time. That temporal element for us; the accelerating, accumulating, multi-linear, interacting blizzard of changes that our intelligence spawns, eludes us. When we do get a glimpse, our obligate and socially obligate boundary conditions tie us in knots, launches waves of combinatorial explosions that drive us back into the trees of the tried and true.

Will our species and our daughter specie in the future be an even brainier version of ourselves?  Or, will the future be left to our daughter specie who is a bit slower in the head, sturdier and simpler?


·     *  “A petard was a small bomb used to blow up gates and walls when breaching fortifications, of French origin and dating back to the sixteenth century. A typical petard was a conical or rectangular metal object containing 2–3 kg (5 or 6 pounds) of gunpowder, with a slow match as a fuse…. The pétard, a rather primitive and exceedingly dangerous explosive device, consisted of a brass or iron bell-shaped device filled with gunpowder fixed to a wooden base called a madrier. This was attached to a wall or gate using hooks and rings, the fuse lit and, if successful, the resulting explosive force, concentrated at the target point, would blow a hole in the obstruction, allowing assault troops to enter.  The word remains in modern usage in the phrase hoist with one's own petard, which means "to be harmed by one's own plan to harm someone else" or "to fall into one's own trap," implying that one could be lifted up (hoist, or blown upward) by one's own bomb.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petard

Friday, November 28, 2014

Thinking Out Loud or, Oooops!


In Air Water Ground, I state early on in the section on Creative Instability that:

“I make the following assumption; It is good for my species to survive in a complex social form. I do not found this assumption on any fact, theorem, or belief. The root is purely desire.”
Correction?:
I make the following assumption; It is good for my species to survive in a complex social form. Wherein some semblance of individual liberty exists. I do not found this assumption on any fact, theorem, or belief. The root is purely desire.
Granted, a Creative Instability inspired process could give rise to any number of governance formats, I realized that:
In writing AWG, I am doing so as a child of the Enlightenment.
And
“…my species to survive in a complex social form…” may happen just fine, even on our current world line. Part of my own prejudice that kept me from seeing this is  my liking the concept of liberty.
Discussion
With the current world line (Increasing economic disparity, Increasing structural unemployment, decreasing government funds, decreasing government regulation, declining quantities globally, of usable fresh water, rapid climate change) complex social forms can exist, and probably will exist for hundreds of years at least (assuming that a general nuclear weapons exchange does not take place in future water wars).

Chinese Fascism may have a good survivability value (as is well laid out in  The Oreskes and Conway, Collapse of Western Civilization: A View from the Future (2014)). But another route is the following. The United States is obviously well into a transition to being a plutocracy. But a plutocracy under biogeophysical pressure, could itself then transition into a form of  Neo-feudalism .

You take the following things:
Vertical Dominance Socially Obligate Boundary Condition
Economic Socially Obligate Boundary Condition
Plutocracy
Cloud based tech and continued computer/communications tech
CNC (computer numerical control machines)
Frank Luntz style public relations work techniques
3D printing
Robotics
You could develop a structure of, say:
Elite/plutocrats
Artisans/Engineers
Security
Poor/underclass.

The last category would be involved in a strenuous struggle to work doing what was left to them with increasing structural unemployment due to increasing automation, (my American readers may find this familiar). Given that struggle, social outliers among the poor could be handled by the Security class. Assuming the Elite could maintain the cooperation of the 2 middle classes, this model could be driven forward in time for a long time, even under very adverse biogeophysical conditions.

We have historical precedent of sorts.
Athenian democracy simplified into more autocratic forms. The Mediterranean republics (Rome, Carthage, etc.)  became a plutocratic empire, only in the west, to “simplify” into feudalism.
Hmmm. Need to update AWG I guess?

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Air Water Ground version 1.6


I hope to prompt examination and discussion about government and society. Governments at this time are conceptually based on the leading ideas of the eighteenth century. Likewise the most successful expression of complex reciprocal altruism today, is capitalism, or market economics. It too, is a child of the eighteenth century.

Since that time we have experienced the development of the bulk of modern science. That development has not only broadened our horizons, it has also it has profoundly changed, for those conversant with the sciences, the experience of reality. While the development of modern science has transformed nearly every area of human endeavor, two crucial areas remain immune to it. They are the practice of government and social structuring itself. Past attempts to incorporate "science" into these two areas have been based upon deep misunderstandings of the science involved.

We are animals, and we are primates. With the challenges our specie faces, most of which are the result of our own behavior, it is more crucial than ever to internalize the last few hundred years of learning into our manner of governance and social structuring. The time has come to use what we know to govern, to structure, and to redesign.

I discuss governance in its broadest terms, that being the relationship between each other and our specie and its planetary environment. With dominance of a planet comes responsibility. I will not argue that It is responsibility to other life, I will argue that it is responsibility to our specie. What is at the “top” is dependent on what is “below” it. Ignoring this will only increase the suffering of our progeny.

Nonetheless, I do not believe that what appears herein would have success in direct applications or implementations. This writing embodies a significant departure from our path dependence. The material about the Economic Socially Obligate Boundary Condition (ESOBC) may be of use in understanding the difficulty we have in coming to grips with big “abstract” problems though.

The origin in my brain of the Creative Instability concept was in the late 1970’s. That along with the work of  Gerard K. O'Neill and my learning what bar code could do, resulted in a piece written in 1978 entitled Orbital Polity Model. That piece is in this document’s appendix. My later understanding of the ESOBC, hyperbolic discounting etc. has delegated the Orbital Polity Model to a curiosity or humor piece. It is the product of a youthful optimism that I no longer suffer from. But if we were moving along a different world line, who knows?

PDF
 https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3H2LxHTQJ2mZ0RhajNxbzY2bm8/view?usp=sharing

Thursday, November 6, 2014

The danger of not studying history


Received on Facebook:

 
"I somehow have gotten on Scott Walker's supporters email list. On Tuesday evening he sent me his victory message. I thought I had heard this saying before so I did a little research and found this photo. His quote was "helping move people from government dependence to true independence through work."

OK, perhaps a mistake by a young staffer, but perhaps...

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Curiouser and Curiouser


Exit polls yesterday in the 2014 U.S. elections revealed that 60% of voters were very disappointed with the Republican Party leadership in Congress. The majority of voters also gave the Republican Party majorities in both houses of Congress.

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Found on an index card of mine


Ginsberg’s Theorem


The three laws of thermal dynamics can be restated as:

1. You cannot win (conservation of mass energy)

2. You cannot break even (entropy increases)

3. You cannot get out of the game (impossibility of reaching absolute zero)

Freeman’s Commentary on Ginsberg’s Theorem

1. Capitalism is based on the idea that you can win

2. Socialism is based on the assumption that you can break even

3. Religion is based on the assumption that you can get out of the game

Friday, October 17, 2014

The New Duck and Cover?

I recently was exposed to the workspace /school safety flavor called ALICE .That means:
Alert
Lockdown
Inform
Counter
Escape
For details, just google say;  with the words ALICE and shooter, and you will get plenty of links. It appears to be an amendment to the Full Employment For Consultants Act.
Anyway, it reminded me of something from when i was a sprout, Duck and Cover .
Duck and Cover, and ALICE are, in a systems thinking sense, good examples of our culture's tendency to recommend a band aide to the gut shot.

ALICE recognizes the reality of the Tainter Symplification , and is actually a decent, well meaning attempt to deal with the problem of the loony shooter in the public place/workplace, given our inability to address the prime multi-causal origins of the phenomena.

1. We do not have a healthcare system. We have a healthcare sector of a market system. I think that is one of the reasons that countries that have a healthcare system and lack a strong gun mythos, also have less mass shooters. In these, it is much easier to spot the looney  at a younger age.

2. The 30 years of "tax revolt" and "government is the problem", not to mention imposition of revenue caps on local governments via state reduction of local decision powers (Wisconsin, where i am); makes it nearly impossible to have public buildings designed during the cold war (threat = "the bomb") to be remodeled/repaced with ones for the current threat (crazy/disgruntled/drug trial/etc. shooter).

3. The easy to get guns and use them nearly anywhere 2nd amendment misreading/NRA for gun manufacturers who can't compete in overseas sales against the AK-47 so need expanded domestic market for military small arms/culture of fear/have to rely on your self/ concealed carry/castle doctrine/gun mythos, war on drugs increasing the risk factor for non-corporate drug entrepreneurs therefore raising prices and therefore street violence (totally unregulated market therefore self help disput settlement)/ ... etc

4. The culture of violence, which is amplified to the Looney that ultimate authority in this kingdom of magical thinking, is a thing called "capital punishment", that sets a wonderful example for the fusterated deranged folk among us... ecspecially if god is communicating with them...

5. Increasing economic disparity and structural unemployment and at the same time teaching that status/power comes from wealth increasing fear/desparation...

I could go on.
ALICE is a duck of the social problems and vacant ideology that we have. What comes after ALICE? Concealed carry allowed everywhere, as the failure cascade continues.

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

How many world wars have there been?


Assuming that a "world war" is any war that is fought on all the continents other than Antarctica, then there have been Six.

World War 1 aka the War of the Austrian Succession 1740-48

World War 2 aka  the Seven Years War 1754-1763, Known if at all, to residents of the United States, as the French & Indian War.

World War 3  The War of American Independence , 1775-1783, Known  to residents of the United States, as the Revolutionary war, or the War for Independence.

World War 4  The Napoleonic Wars 1803-1815.

World War 5  Commonly referred to as the First World War 1914-1918*

World War 6 Commonly referred to as the Second World War 1937-1945 (i measure from the Japanese invasion of China)*

*I think that if one takes an optimistic view of the future, i.e., that human civilization still includes luxuries like historians to categorize the past :), the common practice in a few hundred years will be not to separate these wars into separate events, not unlike how we consider the Hundred Years War. I would suggest instead:
The War of the German &  Japanese Accessions  1866 - 1989
This period covers the Austrian-Prussian War until the the fall of the Berlin wall.

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Another interesting Upworthy Video

"If You Think Only Poor People Need Welfare, Wait Till You See What Really Rich Folks Do With It"
http://www.upworthy.com/if-you-think-only-poor-people-need-welfare-wait-till-you-see-what-really-rich-folks-do-with-it?c=ufb2

LCD Politics *


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The most common political position, from the local through the national level of “governance” in my country, boils down to one thing. Reduce taxes. This underwhelming vision endemic to the incurious reminds me of the following story.

A man walks into a bank to see about getting a loan to start a business. He sits down with the loan officer, who asks to see his business plan. The man says, well, my plan is simple. I want to keep my costs down. The loan officer stands up and says, well that is easy, don’t start a business.

* LCD = “Lowest Common Denominator”

Thursday, January 9, 2014

Highly Probably

New high probability scenario, re "life as we know it".
1. Our galaxy has appox. 100 billion stars.
2. Post Kepler Mission stats are 1 out of 6 stars in galaxy has a 0.5x - 1.5x size of Earth rocky body orbiting within the "habitual zone" of the star.
3. That is appox. 16 billion such planets.
4. Recent studies re the biochemistry of shallow salt water over clay, with a radiation (light) source.
Probability-wise, that is game/set/match folks..

Tuesday, September 3, 2013

With apologies re the name to those North and South of my country's borders...

Is this the current dominant schema in the U.S.A.?

A disambiguation of hunting terms



Terms for “hunting”

 In the spirit of George Orwell’s essay, Politics and the English Language, I am proposing the following disambiguation of “hunting/hunter” when describing a human behavior set, for the 21st century.
Hunt:
Pursuing any non-domesticated living organism with the intention of killing it for eating, necessitated by poverty. (Hunter: one who hunts)
Recreational Killing:
Pursuing any non-domesticated living organism, other than another human, with the intention of killing it for any reason other than eating it, necessitated by poverty. (Recreational killer: one who recreationally kills).
The use of the “sport/sportsman” words re these behaviors.
Using these terms in re and hunting or recreational killing behaviors does not make any sense. “Sport” is a physical activity that is governed by a set of rules or customs and often engaged in competitively. This makes sport a subset of the class “game”. In a game, all sides know it is a game. Prey does not know it is a game, and for prey, it is definitely not a game.
But perhaps if any usage comes close to fitting, it might be:
Hunting or recreational killing using no projectile weapons, traps, baits. Using only ones body parts and hand held non-projectile objects.


 

Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Meta Scenarios Re Rapid Climate Change Adaptation


This is an idea map of:
A
PETM scenario re temperatures, but by 2100 +-.
During the path to 2100, there is not only a Tainter Symplification:

http://adaptationfactory.blogspot.com/2012/12/an-opportunity-to-study-modern-tainter.html
http://adaptationfactory.blogspot.com/2012/10/speaking-of-tainter-simplification.html

But strong conflict events(s)*, resulting in a sudden (over a few generations) stabilization at the hunter-gatherer complexity level. This would continue then over the long tail, until the future point were, as humans discovered  in the past , rediscover agriculture and/or permaculture as the the long delayed glacial period begins?


This mind map is of the same world line, sans the "strong conflict events(s)". In this scenario, while the population would also be lower than now, it would not be the drastic reduction in the first scenario. It would also be comprised of "civilization(s)" kind of like now on steroids, so to speak. Separate, increasingly divergent  intially, varieties of social organzation and technological levels. Resulting forms at the end of the long tail, are totally unclear and speculative.
 
* Strong conflict events(s)
A cascade of violent reactions to scarcity occasioned by any number of scarcity amplifying states. Loss of surface water flow from central Asian/Himalayan glaciers, or, Arctic sea ice disappearance causing unmanagable variability in the North American "bread basket", or both, etc,etc...

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Give Apes Genetic Sequencers and it All goes to Hell?

Image is from the video below.


Subject: Information Storage in DNA http://vimeo.com/47615970

Harvard cracks DNA storage, crams 700 terabytes of data into a single gram
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/134672-harvard-cracks-dna-storage-crams-700-terabytes-of-data-into-a-single-gram

and, from the WSJ:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324539304578259883507543150.html

Some viruses store genetic information in RNA
http://www.dnaftb.org/25/

My Layperson's Question
Given the described procedures/method, given the encoding is done using the 4 letter code shared by all life on the planet above the virus level; would this create the opportunity to create a "computer virus" that could be stored in DNA and when "read", use the DNA structure, or function in the storage itself, in storage, like a real virus does. to do its own thing. Further, could that thing the virus does be released into the non- digital space (us)?

Is this a wise union, of the made and the born?
Two things are certain;
Some people have ill will towards others.
Life as a whole, (DNA) is opportunistic.

Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Yawning Through the News

Opinion

It appears that 2012 was the warmest year on record. At least that is a leading "news" story today.
News: Newly received or noteworthy information, especially about recent or important events.

When every year, or every other year is the new warmest...etc. is it 
really news? I exaggerate. The previous "hottest...etc." was 1998. But you get my drift, right? And, plenty more to come, as we begin our hyper-speed sequel to the PETM


Thursday, November 29, 2012

A Meeting of Minds

"The weasel lives in necessity and we live in choice, hating necessity and dying at the last ignobly in its talons." 

Annie Dillard, from Living Like Weasels.
http://www.courses.vcu.edu/ENG200-lad/dillard.htm

 

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Nature Bats Last

Thanks for the quote Jane.



Whether we and our politicians know it or not, Nature is party to all our deals and decisions, and she has more votes, a longer memory, and a sterner sense of justice than we do.

― Wendell Berry

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Happy Samhain!



Blessed Be! oh Guardians
Blessed Be! loved ones and friends
Another year's upon us
As the wheel has turned again
We invite the ancestors one by one

In anticipation of the next commercial/retail holiday on the calendar, a bit about the harvest festival Samhaim, the old "Halloween" (All Hallows' Evening). Essentially, this was New Year's Day in Pre-Christian Europe, except for the Romans and those latinized, who celebrated the new year at the same time modern Euro Americans do.
A quaint Samhaim custom in some parts was the Wicker Man. "A wicker man was a large wicker statue of a human allegedly used by the ancient Druids for sacrifice by burning..." Julius Caesar, Commentarii de Bello Gallico (Commentary on the Gallic War).
The Druids were one of the two religions "persecuted" by Rome. The other being the Christians.The Christians were accused of violating the Roman law of sacrilege, that being the prohibition of criticism of another's religious belief in public. The Druids did not obey the Roman prohibition on human sacrifice.  




doubleplusungood

One of the reactions to my post of 10/05/2012 was that the opening quote sounded "socialist". Hence, it could alienate the reader from the rest of the piece. Probably true. That also points to how the Right has already won in the U.S.
I think that illustrates both how far our understanding of the Founders, their influences and history generally we have traveled.I recommend to the reader a review of the concept of Socialism. Such as by visiting http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialism#History
You will note the term being coined in Europe in 1827. Quoting from the article:
"The term "socialism" was created by Henri de Saint-Simon, a founder of utopian socialism. The term "socialism" was created to contrast against the liberal doctrine of "individualism". The original socialists condemned liberal individualism as failing to address social concerns of poverty, social oppression, and gross inequality of wealth. They viewed liberal individualism as degenerating society into supporting selfish egoism and that harmed community life through promoting a society based on competition. They presented socialism as an alternative to liberal individualism, that advocated a society based on cooperation."
If you want to see another interesting take on this, how about a post-factual world one? I think this read is closer to how Americans think of the word "socialism". This article also appears in an "pedia", i.e., an online encyclopedia. This is ironic though, since the "encyclopedia" is a creation of The Enlightenment, and this one is anti-age of reason, anti-rational. Conservapedia, http://conservapedia.com/Socialism
My favorite thing in that article is this picture;



I think the Right in the U.S. has fully grasped the importance of Orwell's famous observation; "And if all others accepted the lie which the Party imposed -if all records told the same tale — then the lie passed into history and became truth. 'Who controls the past,' ran the Party slogan, 'controls the future: who controls the present controls the past.' "

It is kind of cute how the Democrats seem to be for the most part still tied to the Age of Reason / classical concept of the "fact". The idea that there are events in space time that are behind us along our common world line. At heart, such Democrats are the actual "conservatives" on the U.S. political landscape.

At this point you may want to consult a standard dictionary to refresh your recollection on what "conservative" actually means.

On the other hand, the Republicans for their part seem to approach the past as a stage for postmodern performance art. Such as that splendid performance in the Texas School Board a few years back. They decided, among other mind bending moves, to eliminate T. Jefferson from history texts. This was due to his apparently secular / Enlightenment views, which did not want to promote.






I think that Democrats, or "liberals" (who are actually similar to the classic concept of conservative, in the post-Clinton party) are ill equipped to oppose this. While many still consider facts to be important, they are as ill informed about history as are the Right. This is not because they feed upon some equivalent of the revisionism found in the books by Fox News pundits that "educate" their cat's paws. Rather, they do not care about history for the most part, and know little of it. This make's the Right's historical revision project easier.  




Friday, October 5, 2012

Stray Thoughts on the American Transition


“What is meant by a Love of the Republic in a Democracy. A love of the republic in a democracy is a love of the democracy; as the latter is that of equality. A love of the democracy is likewise that of frugality. Since every individual ought here to enjoy the same happiness and the same advantages, they should consequently taste the same pleasures and form the same hopes, which cannot be expected but from a general frugality. The love of equality in a democracy limits ambition to the sole desire, to the sole happiness, of doing greater services to our country than the rest of our fellow-citizens. They cannot all render her equal services, but they all ought to serve her with equal alacrity. At our coming into the world, we contract an immense debt to our country, which we can never discharge. … The love of frugality limits the desire of having to the study of procuring necessaries to our family, and superfluities to our country. Riches give a power which a citizen cannot use for himself, for then he would be no longer equal. They likewise procure pleasures which he ought not to enjoy, because these would be also repugnant to the equality.”
Charles de Secondat, Baron de Montesquieu, On the Spirit of the Laws (1748)
This book was one of the common references of the Founders.

“How sweet to live before the new barbarism! At this extreme point of fate that will continue to dawn for a long time, there is a great temptation to make a bed of out of fallen things, a heaven out of shattered dreams, and settle down to wait for the irreparable wrong—surrender and abandonment before the procession of evil.”
Bernard-Henri Levy, Barbarism With A Human Face, p. 191, (1977

As the 2012 election approaches I feel the urge to write a bit about the world line of the United States. I do this aware of my co-culpability for our lot, as a card carrying member of the worst generation, the  generation of swine.

I have never belonged to one of these “pernicious factions”, (what the Founders called political parties).  Living during the period I have, politics for me has been a spectator sport, other than the periodic voting against (never for) a candidate. I habitually vote, if for no other reason to honor the deaths of those who fought for me to have that right, during our revolution.
Why never for a candidate? I was lucky or tricked by, depending on your druthers, being a child during the space race years. It gave me the vision of a world where the promise of our revolution; science, rationality and liberty would circle the world. You know, that seal on the money. The truncated pyramid (knowledge) with the all seeing eye (reason). Novus Ordo Seclorum baby!  
Being a good child of the Founders, I thought that in matters political,  I should weigh decisions as to how it affects res publica, (the public thing, the meaning of “republic”), i.e., the public good, as opposed to my benefit, a private good. Being born late in the 20th Century, and having a basic understanding of  the sciences, made voting for available candidates really hard.
My exposure tolerance to national and state level political theatre has decreased since Citizen’s United, and I have been avoiding election coverage for the most part. But, my political theatre inflow is pretty much limited this fall to:
The American Transition, What Do I Mean?
It is the path of development of the United States of America along the following world line;
  • The first revolution grounded in the principles and thought of The Enlightenment /Age of Reason.
  • The creation of a Republic , done in awareness of that form’s weaknesses.
  • The initial shared liberal ideology of the polity.
  • The natural erosion of the Republic as territory  increases, conquest occurs  and wealth concentrates.
  • The emergence of the Plutocracy.
  • The decline of liberalism and the rise of Neoliberalism.
  • The rise to dominance after 1980 of Idiota Politics (a Greek word “An idiot in Athenian democracy was someone who was characterized by self-centeredness and concerned almost exclusively with private—as opposed to public—affairs. Idiocy was the natural state of ignorance into which all persons were born and its opposite, citizenship, was effected through formalized education.”).
  • Most recently, the alliance in the Republican Party between Neoliberalism, Producerism, and Dominionism, and the apparent final abandonment of the philosophy of the Enlightenment (except for the capitalism part).
This Election and the Transition
"Pessimism is of no value unless it brings forth at the end a slender
but solid ground of certainty and refusal. 
...I say we must give in less than ever before to the insupportable. I say if we cannot raise him up, we must do everything in our power to prevent man from lowering himself."
Bernard-Henri Levy, Barbarism With A Human Face, p. 192, (1977)

The re-election of President Obama will slow the transition, but the slowing will be very little. The Democrats are no longer the children of FDR. They are the children of Clinton. The election of Governor Romney, especially in light of his Randian-Objectivism VP pick, could significantly increase the rate of transition. I think the world line of the American Transition is now difficult to predict very far ahead, because:
  • The path featuring  a governance structure that is a fusion of Neoliberalism, Producerism, and Dominionism, has probabilities of a number of future states, including ; a mature plutocracy, Corporatocracy, Facism, and Theocracy or some mixed variant. Assuming Republican Party ideological dominance, much will depend on the power struggle within that alliance.
  • Similar transitions in history, while perhaps occurring in accompaniment with a Tainter Symplification, have not also been during a period of biogeophysical change/forcing on a planetary scale. This is a major wild card of multi-linear relationships and causalities.
  • The rising of a great power that is fascist (China), especially with the spector  of wide spread Tainter Symplification fueled by biogeophysical forcing adds to the predictive uncertainity.
  • The United States is, as a mathematician might put it, a “strange attractor”. Consequently, the near total lack of dialogue again, this election year, about the current and future  biogeophysical forcing amplifies that forcing, and how it will play out in human societies.

The Little Things That Count

The abandonment of Enlightenment Philosophy by the Republican Party has made it easier to compete. As that abandonment’s great prophet, President Reagan said, “Facts are such stupid things.” This has allowed them to rhetorically break free from the bonds of rationality, and sail the seas of fear and superstition. The message is keyed to the lowest common denominator.  Most Democrats have not really started to grasp the enormity of this change in their opponent, and that may be their doom.

The Power of Luntz on the Post-literate Landscape

Anti-intellectualism is In U.S. politics is not new. Consider Democrat Andrew Jackson’s rise to power in the 1820’s. But the alliance that is the Republican party has taken it, refined it and bottled it into their anti-science brand. At the same time, their consultants use the latest science to craft a communication/media strategy that aims purely for the limbic/emotional response. The Democrats appear to me to not doing this, or when trying, to aim way to high. True, many Democrats I know, at times seem to be loath to leave the sinking ship of the Age of Reason, and perhaps that contributes to their communication problems. They seem slow in adapting to the post-factual “marketplace” of ideas.

Who Woulda Thunk It

Ending on a positive note. How many people one hundred years ago, in 1912, could imagine a presidential race between an African American and a Mormon?

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

The 100 year Starship


"The challenge of traveling to another star system has incredible potential to generate transformative knowledge and technologies that will dramatically benefit the nation and the earth in the near term and the years to come. Taking up the task ignites not only our imagination, but the undeniable human need to push ourselves to accomplishments greater than any single individual."
http://100yss.org/

http://onpoint.wbur.org/2012/05/25/the-100-year-starship
Related organizations:
http://www.tews-spacerace.org/
http://www.fed.org/
http://www.icarusinterstellar.org/