Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Meta Scenarios Re Rapid Climate Change Adaptation


This is an idea map of:
A
PETM scenario re temperatures, but by 2100 +-.
During the path to 2100, there is not only a Tainter Symplification:

http://adaptationfactory.blogspot.com/2012/12/an-opportunity-to-study-modern-tainter.html
http://adaptationfactory.blogspot.com/2012/10/speaking-of-tainter-simplification.html

But strong conflict events(s)*, resulting in a sudden (over a few generations) stabilization at the hunter-gatherer complexity level. This would continue then over the long tail, until the future point were, as humans discovered  in the past , rediscover agriculture and/or permaculture as the the long delayed glacial period begins?


This mind map is of the same world line, sans the "strong conflict events(s)". In this scenario, while the population would also be lower than now, it would not be the drastic reduction in the first scenario. It would also be comprised of "civilization(s)" kind of like now on steroids, so to speak. Separate, increasingly divergent  intially, varieties of social organzation and technological levels. Resulting forms at the end of the long tail, are totally unclear and speculative.
 
* Strong conflict events(s)
A cascade of violent reactions to scarcity occasioned by any number of scarcity amplifying states. Loss of surface water flow from central Asian/Himalayan glaciers, or, Arctic sea ice disappearance causing unmanagable variability in the North American "bread basket", or both, etc,etc...